THE BELL WEEKLY: How Russian society ignores Ukraine’s Kursk incursion

Hello. This week we talk to a top sociologist about why Ukraine’s surprise counter-offensive into the Kursk region has not shocked Russian society. We also cover the scandal surrounding a film about Russian soldiers fighting in Ukraine, and how a Chinese carmaker became the largest foreign business in the country.

Russians calm in the face of Ukraine’s counter-offensive

It has been more than a month since Ukrainian forces crossed the border into the Kursk region, launching a surprise offensive into Russian territory. In that time they have captured hundreds of Russian prisoners of war and occupied more than 1,000 square kilometers of land in the first invasion of Russian territory since World War II. Yet for the most part, Russians are ignoring it. The Bell editor Vyacheslav Dvornikov discussed the attitude of Russian society with Alexei Levinson, head of Levada Center’s department of socio-cultural research and one of the most respected sociologists in Russia. 

• There is almost no shock over what is happening in the Kursk Region, according to Levinson. For Russians, the issue is viewed in the abstract — without any real awareness of the situation. When people express an opinion on Ukraine’s incursion, they tend to regard it as some kind of natural disaster: people are dying, but there is no interest in the root causes of why it is happening. This can be explained by a state of emotional numbness that researchers have observed over the past couple of years, Levinson said. But even he admitted being surprised by the passivity being displayed by Russians. “As a researcher of Russian society, I cannot clearly explain why most people in Russia barely respond to incidents in the war, not even military incursions into Russian territory.” 
• To an outside observer looking at Russia, it could easily seem as if there is no war at all, and certainly no apparent signs that a foreign army has occupied a swath of Russian territory. People in Moscow walk the streets without concern, music plays, the party goes on. But in reality this is an illustration of how Russian society has adapted to the current situation, including on the economic front having had to deal with sanctions and high inflation for the last three years. This adaptation process involves attempting, as far as possible, to gloss over the impact of what is happening or to pretend that it is not happening at all, Levinson explained. From his point of view, the key feature is that Russian society is trying not to change in response to the war and its related upheavals.
• According to Levada polls, a significant chunk of the Russians who support continued military activity in Ukraine (42%) do so out of a belief that the country needs to “finish what we started.” At the same time, the proportion that believes Russia needs to “destroy and eradicate fascism and Nazism” (Putin’s official reasons for the war) is just 18%. For these pro-war sentiments to change, Levinson believes public feeling must first switch to an attitude of “screw it!” But that can only happen against a backdrop of mass public despair — of which there are so far no signs. An apparent readiness for peace negotiations is often regarded as a sign of combat fatigue across the country, but sociologists see no direct evidence of this. “Of course, people would prefer to live the way they did before the war, but not at the cost of retreating from the occupied territories and especially not at the cost of paying reparations,” Levinson said. 
• Although Russians have largely ignored Moscow’s annexation of four Ukrainian regions — few have any interest in this territory — they are concerned that giving them back would represent a military defeat, Levinson said. They also see no intrinsic value in the occupied territory, but rather that holding them demonstrates that Russia is standing up to the United States and NATO. “This creates an interesting construction of a new claim to global leadership, recalling the time when the Soviet Union led a movement of non-aligned countries. Now we’re seeing an attempt to rebuild something similar: it’s backed by Africa, Asia and other countries that don’t like America. This inspires Russians because it creates a sense that the world is not entirely against us, unlike the feeling of a blockade which began after the annexation of Crimea in 2014,” Levinson explained. 
• Over 10 or 20 years, demographics will inevitably bring about a change in Russian society. Among the younger generations there are more people who do not support the war. However, Levinson does not think this will inevitably lead to a complete transformation of Russian society. For example, many of those who welcomed the emergence of democracy in the 1990s following the collapse of the USSR went on to form the bedrock of Putin’s support. 

Why the world should care:

In general, Russian society prefers to ignore Ukraine’s counter-offensive into the western Kursk region — just as for the last two and a half years it has overlooked Ukraine’s mass shelling of border areas in Belgorod. This largely reflects the current mood in Russia. Many, including the country’s leaders, prefer to ignore difficult problems in the hope that they will simply go away.

Russian army movie causes a scandal at Venice Film Festival

At last week’s Venice Film Festival, Russian-Canadian director Anastasia Trofimova premiered her latest work, “Russians at War”, a documentary following the lives of Russian soldiers serving at the front. Its inclusion in the program caused a scandal, with Ukrainian politicians criticizing it as pro-Kremlin propaganda — claims dismissed by Trofimova herself.

• Trofimova’s documentary shows the day-to-day life of Russian soldiers, some of their combat missions and some of the destruction they wrought on Ukrainian cities. In total, she spent seven months on the front. The director explained her aim as a “desperate search for understanding of [my] native land and [my] people.” 
• Trofimova previously shot films about the Middle East, Africa and Eastern Europe, including for RT Documentary, part of the Russian state propaganda TV company RT. Trofimova claims that she went to the front line in Ukraine without official permission from the Russian defense ministry. She said a man named Ilya, who she met on a train in Dec. 2022, helped her gain access. Once there, Trofimova earned the approval of the brigade commander whose soldiers she was filming.
• In the film, many Russian soldiers openly admit that they don’t understand why they were sent to the front. They also say they don’t understand why they are fighting this war. According to Trofimova, Russian soldiers “are not fighting for some kind of ideal, they are fighting for their friends. For Sasha, for Vanya, for Petya, who never came back.”
• Ukrainian directors, diplomats and public figures regard the film as an insult. They are convinced that the film was made with tacit Russian approval, without which Trofimova would never have reached the front or been able to stay there with cameras, embedded in a Russian battalion for several months. Andriy Yermak, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s chief of staff, described the film as “propaganda” and called for a “ban on this absurdity.” Ukrainian producer Darya Bassel, who attended the premiere, wrote that “Russians at War” presents a very distorted picture of reality, spreading false narratives. In addition, both noted that Trofimova’s film did not address allegations of war crimes committed by the Russian army and did not talk about the ongoing destruction of Ukrainian cities or the root causes of the conflict.
• Responding to the criticism, Trofimova said her documentary is an “anti-war” film, which shows the “absolutely ordinary people” fighting in the Russian army. She added that it refutes the prevalent idea in the West that all Russian soldiers are war criminals.

Why the world should care

It is difficult to draw clear conclusions about how exactly this film came about. On the one hand, it is hard to believe that Trofimova could have spent seven months at the front filming soldiers without the knowledge of the secret services and approval from Moscow. At the same time, the film’s contents  — featuring soldiers saying they don’t know what they are fighting for alongside drunkenness and disorder on the front lines — would never have received backing or sign-off from the defense ministry. It seems too subtle to be purely a propaganda project. Regardless of how the film was made or turned out, it is hard to criticize the idea of trying to find out more about who Russian soldiers actually are, not the kind of propaganda and caricatures — positive and negative — advanced by both sides.

Chinese automaker becomes the largest foreign company in Russia

The exodus of Western companies sparked by the Russian invasion and subsequent sanctions has completely changed Russia’s corporate landscape. New research into the top foreign companies active in the Russian market reveals the extent of that overhaul over the last two and a half years.

• Of the 50 biggest foreign companies in Russia, 11 are Chinese, Forbes Russia calculated. Automaker Chery is top of the list after its revenue in Russia quadrupled in 2023 to more than 590 billion rubles ($6.63 billion) on sales of some 220,000 automobiles on the Russian market.
• Two years ago there was only one Chinese company in the same ranking: Huawei. It remains on the list and has now been joined by the likes of carmakers FAW Group, Changan Automobile and JAC Group, white goods and electronics manufacturer HiSense and construction holding CRCC.
• Western companies still feature, but are less prevalent than in previous years. The United States has seven entries, then comes Germany (five), Belarus, Turkey and Switzerland (four each), France (three), Britain and Italy (two each). 
• In previous years, the top spot was held by Western firms: Auchan / Elo (2015-2019), Renault (2020), Leroy Merlin / Adeo (2023), Philip Morris International (2021) and Volkswagen Group (2022). Leroy Merlin has dropped off the list altogether after Adeo, the parent company of the DIY store, sold its Russian assets to local management.

Why the world should care

Chinese companies have been among the biggest beneficiaries of the exodus of foreign firms from Russia, especially in the auto market. It’s no surprise that Chery became the biggest foreign brand: right now almost every new foreign vehicle on the Russian market comes from China.