Putin’s new passion: boosting Russia’s flagging birth rate

The bleak demographic prospects for Russia’s near future have prompted the authorities into fresh action, with new legislation set to come into force to try to boost the country’s low birth rate. Last week, a bill banning “childfree propaganda” passed the first of three readings in parliament. The measures would make it illegal to share information that promotes the idea of not having children. Discussion around the potential ban comes in the context of government officials drawing up a host of plans to try to drive up the country’s sagging birthrate — something that appears to be Vladimir Putin’s latest obsession.

• The bill proposes a ban on “childfree propaganda” on the internet, in the media, in movies and advertising, threatening fines of up to 400,000 rubles ($4,200) for individuals or 5 million rubles ($52,000) for companies and organizations that are deemed to violate the rules. Foreigners who breach the measures would face deportation from Russia. In the wake of lawmakers backing the bill, lawyers recalled how Moscow started out by fining people who breached the notorious “gay propaganda” law— and now a decade later anything the state deems to be pro-LGBT is outlawed as “extremist”.
• It’s not entirely clear what would constitute propaganda under the proposals. The initiative defines the concept of “childfree propaganda” in rather vague terms, meaning everything will depend on the subjective assessment of the executive authorities. However, we can guess at what might break the law. According to lawyers, “childfree propaganda” could likely be found “in any post by a woman over 25” —  an age limit seems to be arbitrary — “that makes even one positive reference to her life without children, especially if she mentions that she has no plans to have any.”
• There is no doubt that the bill will be approved by the Duma, after which it will go to senators for a rubber-stamp vote before President Vladimir Putin can sign it into law. In a sign it is set to advance, several parliamentary heavyweights have endorsed the proposals. Moreover, driving up Russia’s birth rate is Putin’s new passion, journalist Farida Rustamova reported, citing information from high-ranking officials. For this reason, deputies and senators are eager to please their superiors. Over the past two years, the government has rejected similar ideas on three occasions — but now “the concept has changed.”
• In recent months, Russian officials seem to have focused their minds on how to increase Russia’s birth rate. Lawmaker Tatyana Butskaya proposed that employers monitor the birth rate among their workforce. “We should organize ourselves and conduct another special operation, like the Special Military Operation, we need a Special Demographic Operation,” she said. Fellow MP Zhanna Ryabtseva urged women to “give birth, give birth and give birth again,” pointing out that women could be starting families in their late teens. And Health Minister Mikhail Murashko condemned the desire of the younger generation to build a career before having children.
• Putin himself has repeatedly urged Russians to start families earlier and have as many children as possible. “Big, multi-child families should be the normal way of life for all the peoples of Russia,” he said in November 2023, encouraging Russians to preserve the tradition of families with seven or eight children. In February, he called on women to have two or three children to maintain Russia’s population.
• Russia’s demographic situation is far from encouraging. The latest figures show that the population fell by 243,000 people (0.17%) in 2023. There’s no indication that this will improve in 2024 or 2025. Due to the war and the changing economic situation, a third of Russians have decided to postpone or abandon plans to have children, according to researchers at the Higher School of Economics.

Why the world should care:

Demographers have repeatedly explained that families decide whether to have children based primarily on their financial circumstances and their overall confidence in the future. However, officials continue to ignore the war and the noticeable price rises facing ordinary Russians, preferring instead to promote “traditional values” that have nothing to do with real issues of demographics.