THE BELL WEEKLY: Kremlin fury at US green light on Ukraine missiles

This week we look at how Moscow has reacted to the United States giving Ukraine permission to use its long-range missiles for strikes on Russian territory. We also cover new steps the regime is taking to squeeze the income of Kremlin critics abroad.

Russia’s reaction to the prospect of ATACMS strikes

The news that the United States will allow Ukraine to use its missiles to hit targets inside Russian territory was an unpleasant surprise for Russia’s leaders on Sunday evening. It is by no means certain that it will hand Ukrainian forces a significant advantage on the battlefield, but Vladimir Putin has previously said that he would regard such a move as equivalent to the US directly entering the war. According to The Bell’s sources, that is not just rhetoric – the Kremlin leader genuinely does see it that way. Now that it has become a reality, Moscow is searching for a response.

• The US decision to permit Ukraine to strike at Russia’s internationally recognized territory with long-range ATACMS missiles has not yet been announced publicly by any administration official. However, on Sunday evening several US media outlets reported simultaneously, citing administration insiders, that the green light had been given — and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky also referenced it cryptically in his evening address. The Kremlin did not respond right away, but on Monday, Putin’s press secretary Dmitry Peskov said that the US decision injected a “significant new round of tension” into the conflict. Hours later, the foreign ministry said the decision radically changes the nature of the conflict and said Moscow would respond “appropriately and palpably”. Both directly referred to Putin’s speech of Sep. 12, when he spoke at length about the potential consequences of such a decision.
• At that time, Putin’s statement came in response to a New York Times report (which on that occasion turned out to be premature) that Biden might allow Ukraine to use ATACMS to strike deep into Russia. Putin said such a move “would mean that NATO countries — the US, European countries — were at war with Russia.” He added that Ukraine is not capable of carrying out such strikes by itself and that NATO personnel would have to enter the flight assignments and targets for the missiles. His words were indirectly backed up today by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who explained Germany’s refusal to supply Ukraine with its own long-range Taurus rockets was because Germany would have to take part in setting up the strike parameters — helping with targeting — something that was unacceptable to Scholz.
• Judging by TV broadcasts, Russian propaganda appears to be in a holding pattern — awaiting further instructions on how to respond. So far they have adopted something like “moderate nuclear threat” mode. Leading state TV host Dmitry Kiselyov, whose main weekly show was prepared ahead of the news, inserted a quick segment about a possible Russian response into a section about Joe Biden’s talks with European leaders at this week’s G20 in Brazil. “It could be anything, it’s not for nothing that we revised our nuclear doctrine,” Kiselyov said. The on-duty hawks, such as lawmaker Andrey Gurulyov, warned there “might be nothing left of America.” However, such threats have long been standard on Russian TV. 
• A source familiar with the Russian leadership’s thinking told The Bell that within the Kremlin the mood behind closed doors is very much that “NATO has gone to war with us” and they are proceeding from that basis. At the very least, Russia will step up its strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure, as well as on government agencies. But there could be more radical options, The Bell’s source suggested.
• Russia was already escalating its aerial attacks even before news came from Washington. Through Saturday night and into Sunday morning, Russian forces launched one of their largest mass missile and drone assaults since last winter, targeting Ukraine’s electricity grid with 120 missiles and 90 drones. But that was not the end. Hours later a missile hit an apartment block in the city of Sumy, killing 12 people, and then on Monday, Russia launched a missile strike on a residential quarter of Odesa, killing another 10. Russia’s logic is clear — it’s trying to hit Ukraine as hard as possible to force it into negotiations that it hopes Donald Trump will broker.

Why the world should care

The two months before Trump’s inauguration will be tough for Ukraine and anxious for the rest of the world. Russia will seek to raise the stakes as much as possible ahead of any talks in order to sap Kyiv’s morale and advance its own hardline demands. It’s hard to say at this stage how serious the latest Russian threats about a response are.

Russia’s authorities squeeze exiled critics’ income

The authorities are looking to strip income for Russians who criticize the Ukraine invasion from abroad. For celebrities and artists, that means no more royalty payments, while for others it could mean halting any income they get from renting out property.

• Many prominent Russian artists who left the country after the invasion of Ukraine have continued to agitate in exile, playing concerts, giving interviews and rallying their supporters on social media. Back in April 2022, popular singer Monetochka and rapper Noize MC launched the “Voices of Peace” tour. Comedian Maxim Galkin, husband of Russia’s most famous singer Alla Pugacheva has nine million followers on Instagram and is performing across Europe and North America while regularly speaking out against the war on social media. Boris Akunin, one of the most popular living Russian authors, sold 259,000 books in Russia in 2023. All of them are designated “foreign agents”, and some are even regarded as extremists.
• The authorities are now finally moving to explicitly target their earning power in Russia. “Those who (seek to) destroy Russia by insulting its citizens, the participants of our special military operation, should not get rich at the expense of our country,” Duma speaker Vyacheslav Volodin at the start of November, announcing a new bill that would force foreign agents to receive royalty payments exclusively via special, effectively blocked, Russian-based ruble accounts. 
• The bill that would deprive foreign agents of their right to receive royalties in Russia went before the State Duma last week. Under the measures, revenues from book sales, or music performances, can only be paid into special ruble accounts from which it is almost impossible to withdraw funds — a similar system to that used for profits made by companies from unfriendly countries. The earnings would only be allowed to be withdrawn after an individual has their “foreign agent” status removed — or to pay fines or other fees that go straight to the government’s coffers. The Russian Authors’ Society, which distributes royalties, began paying into such accounts on its own initiative back in 2023. 
• This is already the second official move to cut off celebrity foreign agents from their Russian earnings following a complete ban on receiving advertising revenue.
• There are currently 491 people on the foreign agent list, including musicians Boris Grebenshchikov, Zemfira, Andrei Makarevich, Monetochka, Noize MC and Oxxymiron, writers Dmitry Bykov and Boris Akunin, along with other well-known cultural figures.
• It also became clear last week that the authorities are not limiting their aim just to celebrities in exile. Alongside foreign agents, lawmakers also have those who, in their words, “shower Russia with slop” from abroad while earning rental income from property in Russia, in their sights. “Living on the money from renting out an apartment in Russia while you shower your homeland in slop will be a problem,” warned lawmaker Alexander Khinshtein. 
• Many emigrants who left Russia following the start of the invasion use rental income on their former homes to help pay the bills abroad. It is not clear how the confiscation of those funds will be organized, but it is clear that this will be a big blow for tens of thousands of people — possibly more. The Bell estimates that at least 650,000 people left Russia after the invasion of Ukraine and have not yet returned.

Why the world should care

Volodin has made it obvious: just because you aren’t a foreign agent, don’t think you can relax or that we only care about a few hundred human rights defenders, journalists and opposition-minded cultural figures. In traditional Russian fashion, the new law will demonstrate how criticism of the authorities leads to unpleasant material consequences for those dishing it out, whoever they are.