THE BELL WEEKLY: Georgia rocked by pro-EU protests
After a less-than-convincing victory in Georgia’s parliamentary elections for his Georgian Dream party, oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili is rolling the dice, with the government in Tbilisi announcing a complete halt to talks on joining the EU. In effect, Georgian Dream has gone all-in on its confrontation with the West — and with a large part of its own country. Some 80% of Georgians support EU accession and any step away from European integration was inevitably going to provoke mass protests. It is impossible not to draw comparisons to Ukraine in 2013-14, when pro-EU demonstrations eventually forced Russian-backed leader Viktor Yanukovich out of office, leading Moscow to annex Crimea and provide armed support to pro-Moscow separatists in the east. The difference for Moscow? Vladimir Putin may not be able to handle a revolution in Georgia right now.
What’s going on?
After the election results — which opposition parties refused to recognize – did not spark significant protests, Georgia’s de facto ruler Bidzina Ivanishvili raised the stakes. His protégé, PM Irakli Kobakhidze announced last Thursday the suspension of all EU accession talks until 2028. He accused the EU of using Georgia’s candidate status for “blackmail, bringing chaos to the country and attempting to foment a revolution.” At the same time, he paradoxically insisted that bringing Georgia into the EU by 2030 remained his top priority and that his party would work tirelessly to implement the necessary reforms. By 2028, Georgia will be economically prepared for the resumption of negotiations and by 2030 it will join the EU, Kobakhidze said.
That might sound contradictory — but the statement has a certain internal logic. The ruling party cannot afford to outright reject joining the EU. Even though Georgian politics is polarized, the population is united behind the idea of European integration, with polls consistently showing support for EU membership at around 80%. When Georgia achieved EU candidate status in December 2023, it was celebrated nationwide. Georgian Dream hailedcandidate status as Ivanishvili’s great personal achievement.
Turning against European integration is possibly the single most unpopular position that Georgian Dream could adopt. It was obvious that if any policy would lead to mass protests across Georgia, it was this one. The fact that Ivanishvili was sabotaging Georgia’s accession bid was clear some time ago — certainly at the point when his party approved its version of Russia’s “foreign agent” and “LGBT propaganda” laws. But nobody could imagine that the party was going to risk blatantly walking away from EU negotiations, particularly after it secured just 54% of the vote — rather than its target 75% — and has been accused of electoral fraud.
Nonetheless, Ivanishvili decided now was the time to make a move, seeking to nip resistance to his anti-Western and pro-Russian agenda in the bud, right at the start of Georgian Dream’s next term in power.
Street protests
The reaction from the opposition was furious and immediate. Several thousand people gathered outside Georgia’s parliament and the protests have escalated every day since. On Sunday night several thousand were involved in violent clashes with police outside the parliament building, along the central Rustaveli Avenue and in neighboring streets. Over the first four days, police arrestedabout 200 people.
The police used water cannon and tear gas. On Saturday night protesters were viciously beaten, although it seems that after that the police were ordered to tone it down. protesters have pelted officers with stones and other improvised projectiles, as well as launching fireworks at them — the latter becoming a symbol of the protests. The most striking video over the weekend showed one protester shooting fireworks at police from a makeshift machine gun. On Saturday night, demonstrators also stormed one of the offices of the ruling Georgian Dream party and a fire started in a parliamentary building after it was hit by a firecracker.
The protesters’ main demand is for a new parliamentary election. The opposition regard the previous poll, which saw Georgian Dream get 54% of the vote in late October, as fraudulent.
Businesses and officials protest
Major Georgian businesses have taken active political positions amid the protests. Georgia’s two leading banks, Bank of Georgia and TBC, the two biggest telecoms networks Magti and Silknet, the biggest auto dealership Tegeta, and top developer ORBI Group have all denounced the step away from Europe and the violence against protesters.
Officials are also protesting: statements condemning the decision have been issued by employees at Georgia’s foreign ministry, defense ministry, Constitutional Court, as well as judges and other civil servants. Several Georgian ambassadors in Western countries have resigned in protest. Unconfirmed reports say the ambassador to the US is among them.
How the authorities reacted
The government, well aware that it is going for broke with this approach, is not about to back down. On Sunday morning, Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze stated that there would be no new parliamentary election and on Dec. 14 parliament will appoint a new president in place of Salome Zurabishvili, who backs the protesters. The Georgian Dream candidate for the job is ex-footballer Mikheil Kavelashvili, a former MP from a conservative party allied to Georgian Dream. On Monday, Kobakhidze said there would be “no negotiations” with the protesters and accused them of being funded from abroad.
What happens next?
The protests in Tbilisi are striking. There are as many people on the streets as in spring 2023 when the Georgian government was forced to withdraw its controversial “foreign agent” law (only to successfully bring it back a year later). The mood among the protesters now is far more radical. The open opposition of big business and officials also looks worrying for Georgian Dream. Ivanishvili has de facto ruled Georgia successfully for 12 years, carefully balancing pro- and anti-Western lines. Now that era of balance has come to an end — posing a risk for the government. However, Ivanishvili is not currently inclined to surrender.
Moscow’s reaction is one of the most important factors in this situation. So far, Ivanishvili is doing all he can to keep Georgians frightened of Russian intervention. Everyone involved has clear memories of Ukraine’s Maidan protests, which started 11 years ago in very similar circumstances.
Georgian Dream built its election campaign on frightening voters with the prospect of a war against Russia. Every Georgian knows only too well that Russian troops are stationed just 40 kilometres (25 miles) from Tbilisi in South Ossetia. In 2022, most of the troops at three military bases in South Ossetia and Abkhazia were transferred to Ukraine and there is no fresh information about deployments. With a population of under 4 million, Georgia’s army is far smaller and probably less combat-ready than Ukraine’s was three years ago. But it is difficult to imagine that Russia would choose to open a second front should the Georgian Dream government collapse in the same way Yanukovych’s did in Ukraine in 2014. Even if the protesters win, any future Georgian government will always have the potential of a Russian invasion hanging over its head.
Russia’s official reaction is predictable. “The most direct parallel that can be drawn is the events of Ukraine’s Maidan. All the signs point to an attempt at another orange revolution,” said Dmitry Peskov on Monday. At the same time, he assured that Russia is not intending to intervene and that “the Georgian authorities are taking measures to stabilize the situation and restore calm.”
Why the world should care
If Bidzina Ivanishvili manages to overcome the protests, it will be a painful setback for Europe. The West does not have many allies in this part of the world. Georgia, for the past 20 years, has been the most consistent. But it is far from clear what the European Union or United States can do in response to the protests now rocking the Caucasus nation.
