Are Russia’s war emigrants heading home?

After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, hundreds of thousands of Russians left the country. Most of them were highly-skilled personnel who could work remotely or find jobs abroad. The Russian authorities are sticking to their story that most of those who were “scared off” at the start have since returned. And by the end of the third year of the war, foreign media outlets started writing about Russia’s brain drain being replaced by an influx. However, as new research by OutRush shows, the number of Russians that have actually returned since summer 2023 is no more than 8%.

• In July 2024 The Bell calculated that since 2022 the most modest estimate for the number of people that had left Russia and not returned stood at around 650,000. The Russian authorities initially insisted that most who left, either after the invasion or after the September 2022 mobilization later returned. The topic of Russian emigres returning home has been picked up by analysts and media outlets, some of which estimated return rates ranging from 15% to 45%.
• But researchers Emil Kamalov (European University Institute, Florence), Ivetta Sergeyeva (Stanford University) and Karolina Nugumanova (Scuola Normale Superiore, Pisa) have conducted their own measurements as part of the OutRush project, based on a sample of 8,500 Russian emigrants living in more than 100 countries from summer 2023 to 2024.
• OutRush’s research suggests that, from 2023 to 2024, there has been no mass return to the motherland. The survey showed that over the year-long period studied, only 8% of emigrants who left Russia after the war began had returned home. A further 5% said that they planned to do so in the foreseeable future. In addition, 21% of those surveyed had moved from one country to another, while another 28% were planning to move to somewhere different, but not Russia.
• “We are seeing a kind of stabilization of migration: about 6-8% return each year, but roughly the same number leave, so the overall figures do not change very much,” the authors of the report concluded. Moreover, only 54% of those surveyed said that they would consider returning to Russia under any circumstances — including the end of the war or the fall of Putin’s regime.
• Of those Russians who left since 2022, only 1% are considering leaving Western countries such as Germany, Spain, the Netherlands or the USA. A second group of countries saw middling rates of departure — around 13-16% had left Israel, Argentina and Serbia. Russians that settled in non-EU countries were most likely to have left — like Georgia (58%), Turkey (47%), Armenia (47%), Kazakhstan (40%) and Montenegro (33%). However, sizeable numbers of them were heading to other countries, not Russia, with Serbia being the most popular destination as a second country for Russians that left after 2022.
• Among those who returned to Russia, 34% complained that they could not find good jobs abroad. Another 34% missed their homeland and 32% were dissatisfied with the country they had moved to. The numbers planning to return were higher among people who left due to fear of the draft, for family reasons or in search of better opportunities.
• By profession, 43% of those surveyed worked in tech. The most popular destinations for them were Cyprus, Spain and Portugal. Workers in the arts, culture, science education and media made up another 21% of those who left, with France, Israel and Britain the most popular destinations. Since leaving, 7% have set up their own business and 28% plan to do so. The most popular locations for starting a new enterprise were Argentina, Brazil and Spain, along with Serbia, Montenegro, Georgia and the United States.

Why the world should care

People who left Russia after 2022 were mainly motivated either by politics (their opposition to the Kremlin and the war) or fear of being mobilized. For the most part, neither group seems interested in coming back.