Daron Acemoglu talks to The Bell about Putin, Zelensky and Trump

Daron Acemoglu, one of the most cited economists in the world, received the Nobel Prize for Economics last year alongside his team for their research into how institutions affect well-being. Three years of war in Ukraine has finally ended the idea of institutions in Russia – but neither the government nor the economy seem to have suffered greatly. In the United States, Donald Trump is attacking institutions with all his might and the rest of the world is yet to come up with institutions that can safely lead society through the unfolding tech revolution. In an interview with The Bell's Denis Kasyanchuk, Acemoglu discussed these trends and more. Here are some of the highlights.

• In spring 2022, straight after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Acemoglu said that the war would have catastrophic consequences for Russia and for Putin personally. Now he accepts that for the president, the situation isn’t all that bad – if Trump’s ascendency enables him to negotiate a peace that brings territorial or strategic gains for Russia, he can come out of the war victorious.
• Putin has been relatively successful in protecting the middle class and preventing the escalation of protest. Sanctions have not had the anticipated effect, primarily due to stable oil prices, but also thanks to the third countries that kept buying that oil regardless of restrictions. Russia has managed to establish logistics, assemble the necessary army and launch a more successful offensive against Ukraine, Acemoglu highlighted. 
• But lleaving aside the question of how things will develop under Trump, he believes that the war has still weakened Putin. Just 18 months ago he faced an attempted coup, something that was previously completely unthinkable. “For me, that’s a sign of weakness in his regime. I would even say that if the war had gone worse for Russia, Putin might have lost power. But now the war is going much better for Russia than two years ago,” the economist said.
• According to Acemoglu, Russia has already experienced catastrophic consequences: “Russia’s institutions are effectively gone and the economy will not recover in the near future: in the best case it will take 10 years to return to the frankly not particularly healthy situation before the invasion of Ukraine.”
• If, with Trump’s support, Russia manages to conclude a truce with Ukraine on good terms, its geopolitical influence in the region might increase. “But this is not an unambiguous result. For example, due to this three-year war Russia had to limit its activity in the Middle East and its client state in Syria under Bashar al-Assad fell apart,” Acemoglu said. The undisputed superpowers, China and the United States, can deploy their forces anywhere in the world at will. But Russia lacks the resources for this, there are limits to Russia’s might in the wider world, Acemoglu said. “However, maybe I underestimated its strength. And Russia’s fall may take longer than I initially thought.”

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The full interview is available here (in Russian).