THE BELL WEEKLY: Russians' happiness hits decade-high

Hello! This week we look at why Russians are happier than at any point in the last decade, and delve into a new study suggesting those who fled after the invasion are not rushing back to Russia, despite claims by the Kremlin and even Western media outlets.

Russians’ wellbeing levels surge in face of war, sanctions and repression

Despite being hit with unprecedented Western sanctions, the war with Ukraine has been accompanied by a noticeable increase in the well-being of Russians. A new study has revealed the extent of the domestic feel-good factor, with economists at the Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economics (BOFIT) finding the level of Russians’ satisfaction with their household and personal circumstances has hit its highest in a decade.

• To understand how the restructuring of Russia’s economy during wartime affected Russians, economists Sinikka Parviainen (BOFIT) and William Pyle (Middlebury College, USA) used data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Service (RLMS), which has been conducted by the Higher School of Economics almost every year since the 1990s. This research tracks the economic well-being of Russian households and individuals with a sample size of around 6,000-8,000 households and 17,000-21,000 people.
• The economists looked at RLMS data from 2013-2023, scrutinising responses to the questions: “how satisfied with life are you right now?” and “how satisfied with your financial circumstances are you right now?”. They also looked at whether households had made large purchases over the past year, how much they spent on cultural events and how long they could maintain their current lifestyle if they lost their main source of income.
• They concluded that the first two years of Russia’s invasion — 2022 and 2023 — saw the highest levels of general satisfaction, and specific financial satisfaction had also returned to 2014 levels for the first time. That year is seen as a benchmark before Russia was plunged into an economic crisis following the annexation of Crimea, imposition of Western sanctions and an oil price crash.
• Large purchases fell to a minimum in 2022 but demand for non-food goods has since increased faster than inflation and wages, in line with The Bell’s earlier  calculations. There was also a sharp rise in the proportion of households spending money on entertainment: in 2023 this reached 2018 levels, the researchers noted. The number of respondents who said they would be able to last more than a few months on their savings reached a 10-year high.
• These findings correspond with Russia’s official statistics which also point to improved financial circumstances since the start of the war. In 2023, real incomes in Russia not only returned to 2013 levels after a decade of lost living standards, but surpassed the pre-Crimea level by 5%, the researchers highlighted.
• There are no surprises as to the cause — a huge increase in state spending on the invasion and the military-industrial complex that has driven record labor shortages and pushed wages up across the economy. The high salaries offered by the state to people sent to work at the front, as well as those paid to soldiers (from 200,000 rubles a month) have played a big part, and the main winners have been residents of Russia’s poorest regions, which have recorded an unusually sudden increase in bank deposits.

Why the world should care

Putin’s regime is unlikely to face any internal threat as long as Russians’ well-being and overall happiness is on the rise.

Are Russia’s war emigrants heading home?

After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, hundreds of thousands of Russians left the country. Most of them were highly-skilled personnel who could work remotely or find jobs abroad. The Russian authorities are sticking to their story that most of those who were “scared off” at the start have since returned. And by the end of the third year of the war, foreign media outlets started writing about Russia’s brain drain being replaced by an influx. However, as new research by OutRush shows, the number of Russians that have actually returned since summer 2023 is no more than 8%.

• In July 2024 The Bell calculated that since 2022 the most modest estimate for the number of people that had left Russia and not returned stood at around 650,000. The Russian authorities initially insisted that most who left, either after the invasion or after the September 2022 mobilization later returned. The topic of Russian emigres returning home has been picked up by analysts and media outlets, some of which estimated return rates ranging from 15% to 45%.
• But researchers Emil Kamalov (European University Institute, Florence), Ivetta Sergeyeva (Stanford University) and Karolina Nugumanova (Scuola Normale Superiore, Pisa) have conducted their own measurements as part of the OutRush project, based on a sample of 8,500 Russian emigrants living in more than 100 countries from summer 2023 to 2024.
• OutRush’s research suggests that, from 2023 to 2024, there has been no mass return to the motherland. The survey showed that over the year-long period studied, only 8% of emigrants who left Russia after the war began had returned home. A further 5% said that they planned to do so in the foreseeable future. In addition, 21% of those surveyed had moved from one country to another, while another 28% were planning to move to somewhere different, but not Russia.
• “We are seeing a kind of stabilization of migration: about 6-8% return each year, but roughly the same number leave, so the overall figures do not change very much,” the authors of the report concluded. Moreover, only 54% of those surveyed said that they would consider returning to Russia under any circumstances — including the end of the war or the fall of Putin’s regime.
• Of those Russians who left since 2022, only 1% are considering leaving Western countries such as Germany, Spain, the Netherlands or the USA. A second group of countries saw middling rates of departure — around 13-16% had left Israel, Argentina and Serbia. Russians that settled in non-EU countries were most likely to have left — like Georgia (58%), Turkey (47%), Armenia (47%), Kazakhstan (40%) and Montenegro (33%). However, sizeable numbers of them were heading to other countries, not Russia, with Serbia being the most popular destination as a second country for Russians that left after 2022.
• Among those who returned to Russia, 34% complained that they could not find good jobs abroad. Another 34% missed their homeland and 32% were dissatisfied with the country they had moved to. The numbers planning to return were higher among people who left due to fear of the draft, for family reasons or in search of better opportunities.
• By profession, 43% of those surveyed worked in tech. The most popular destinations for them were Cyprus, Spain and Portugal. Workers in the arts, culture, science education and media made up another 21% of those who left, with France, Israel and Britain the most popular destinations. Since leaving, 7% have set up their own business and 28% plan to do so. The most popular locations for starting a new enterprise were Argentina, Brazil and Spain, along with Serbia, Montenegro, Georgia and the United States.

Why the world should care

People who left Russia after 2022 were mainly motivated either by politics (their opposition to the Kremlin and the war) or fear of being mobilized. For the most part, neither group seems interested in coming back.