Fallout from the Alaska summit

Hello! This week, as Vladimir Zelensky and European leaders meet Donald Trump in the White House, we analyze the fallout from the Alaska summit between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump and why it is seen in Moscow and beyond as a triumph for the Kremlin.

The Alaska summit: No deal, but a victory for Moscow

The Putin-Trump summit in Alaska left the best possible impression in Moscow. Indirect signs suggest that the Kremlin regards the talks, which did not result in a “deal” over how the Ukraine war should end, as a big step forward in getting Washington to endorse its idea of a settlement. The Bell’s sources noted that in his conversation with Trump, Putin directly outlined his demands to halt the invasion for the first time. What he put forward was less about territory and more about reaching an agreement with the West over security guarantees and blocking the further expansion of NATO. Trump’s statements and leaks out of Washington have sent Europe scrambling, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and a host of European leaders headed to the White House on Monday for their own talks with Trump, trying to bring him back onside. Despite Trump and Putin appearing to be closer than ever before to their own agreement on how the war could end, any compromise by Ukraine is high risk, and peace talks between any and all of the sides could fail for numerous reasons.

What’s going on?

Nobody in Europe, Ukraine, or Russia (both official and non-official sources) would argue against the idea that the summit went in Moscow’s favour.

Russia’s main achievement is obvious: Trump has dropped his demand for an unconditional ceasefire and is now pushing Zelensky to go straight to a fully-fledged peace treaty on what looks like terms the Ukrainian leader has previously repeatedly ruled out. That is exactly the position that the Kremlin has sought since the start of Trump’s diplomacy. Despite what has been put on the table, Kyiv can hardly refuse to talk. Russia is pressing its military advantage, and Ukraine risks being put in a position where if it outright rejects a Trump-backed peace proposal it will be left without American support.