Russia’s budget at risk of economic reality

Hello! Welcome to your weekly guide to the Russian economy, written by Alexander Kolyandr and Alexandra Prokopenko and brought to you by The Bell. This week we continue our analysis of next year’s budget, digging into how economic reality could upset its overly optimistic assumptions.

Russia overlooks sanctions and oil threats in public finance plan

Last week we highlighted how the 2026 budget is the child of a grand compromise between Russia’s generals and accountants. The first demanded no let-up in military spending, but the latter insisted it was paid for by tax hikes on individuals and small businesses, so as not to trigger more inflation. This week we look at what the plan’s underlying forecasts tell us about the immediate future of the Russian economy, its ability to withstand stress and how it could be knocked off course.