Russia’s budget: Paper tiger or invincible bear?
Hello! Welcome to your weekly guide to the Russian economy, written by Alexandra Prokopenko and Alexander Kolyandr and brought to you by The Bell. This week we analyze Russia’s draft budget plans for 2026, which show neither the “paper tiger” economy portrayed by Donald Trump nor the invincible “bear” claimed by the Kremlin.
What the draft budget says about Russia’s economy
Russia’s government has approved the outlines of its draft budget for 2026-2028. The full details will only be made public next week, when it is submitted to parliament, but the basic parameters give a clear overview of Moscow’s strategy. The government will attempt to get through 2026 without increasing expenditure, and it plans that military spending – the greatest single expense – will even fall for the first time since the invasion of Ukraine. Officials were quick to hail the budget as balanced and one that would counter inflation. But the reality is clear: the Russian state is finding it harder and harder to make ends meet after three years of war.
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