Russia’s Pearl Harbor?

Hello! This week we look in depth at Ukraine’s attacks on Russian air bases housing its strategic bomber fleet — what it means for the war, could Russia go nuclear in response, and why state TV hasn’t been talking about it.

Ukraine attacks Russian strategic bomber fleet in stunning drone operation

Ukraine on Sunday carried out an unprecedented attack deep into Russian territory. Using drones, apparently smuggled into Russia in advance, Kyiv hit several airfields where Russia’s military houses its strategic bomber fleet. On paper, such an attack could be seen by Russia as a pretext for the use of nuclear weapons—but it is unlikely that Moscow would take such a desperate step. 

Drones from trucks

Operation “Spiderweb”, as it was dubbed by Ukraine’s Security Service, involved drones attacking four air bases in different parts of Russia. Two of them, Ivanovo and Dyagilevo, are in regions close to Moscow, but the other two, Olenya in the Murmansk region and Belaya in Irkutsk are deep in Russian territory—some 1,700 and 4,500 km from the border with Ukraine. The attack on Belaya was the first drone strike on Siberia of the entire war. 

According to Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky, the operation had been prepared for 18 months and used 117 FPV drones and the same number of drone operators. Zelensky said the attack hit 34% of Russia’s strategic cruise missile carriers at the bases. We know that the aircraft under fire included (1,2) Тu-95МSs, Тu-160s, Тu-22М3s and An-12 transporters. Ukraine’s SBU claimedthe attacks damaged planes worth $7 billion.

“The most interesting thing – and we can already say this publicly – is that the ‘office’ for our operations on Russian territory was right next to FSB’s headquarters in one Russian region,” Zelensky said.

A source within the Ukrainian military told the media that the drones took off from trucks that had driven up close to the airbases (a claim confirmed by eyewitness videos). Ukraine’s armed forces first sent the drones into Russia hidden in mobile wooden cabins (see here for photos), then remotely opened to roofs to allow the drones to come streaming out to attack the airbases.

In all likelihood, at least one of the trucks, which was taking drones to the Amur Region, exploded before it reached its destination. That incident was not far from the Ukrainka airfield, which was not attacked on Sunday. 

The people who helped prepare the attack from within Russia left the country before it began, Zelensky said. But at least one truck driver was arrested in the Murmansk region. He may not have known what he was carrying.

Nuclear response?

Ukraine did not simply hit Russian airfields, it destroyed and damaged part of Russia’s strategic aviation, specifically its nuclear bombers. Along with nuclear submarines and intercontinental ballistic missiles, strategic bombers are one part of Russia’s nuclear triad. However, the planes also have other uses and since the start of the war, Tu-95s, Tu-22M3s and Tu160s have carried outmissile attacks on Ukrainian cities.