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Foreign banks in Russia after four years of the war PRO Members Public
After the invasion of Ukraine and the sanctions shock of 2022, foreign banks massively reduced or completely halted their operations in Russia. The vacant market niches were quickly occupied by Russian players, but a significant number of foreign subsidiaries continue to do business in Russia, albeit in a very different
Central Bank prepares end-of-year cut PRO Members Public
Next week the Central Bank will take its final interest rate decision of the year, likely cutting borrowing costs by at least 50 basis points, to 16%, amid slowing inflation. * The last meeting of the year is scheduled for Dec. 19. At the previous meeting on Oct. 24, the board
What might Putin bring back from India? PRO Members Public
Vladimir Putin went to India for his first visit since 2021. India is one of Russia’s key political and economic partners, but pressure from Western sanctions is hitting both trade and diplomatic relations. Putin’s visit is intended to revive them. * The United States is trying to knock India
A strange rise in productivity PRO Members Public
Amid a general slowdown in industrial output, especially manufacturing (which we discussed last week), Russia’s federal statistics agency Rosstat unexpectedly reported a sharp rise in production and manufacturing, including military-related industries, in October. A slight increase in corporate lending does not seem to explain the surge. * According to Rosstat,
Russia starts selling gold reserves PRO Members Public
The Central Bank began its first sales of physical gold from its reserves as part of the finance ministry’s efforts to fund the budget deficit. With gold at record high levels, this is more lucrative than selling off Russia’s new reserve currency, the Chinese yuan. * Gold sales take
New sanction worries PRO Members Public
Lukoil’s difficulty in disposing of its foreign assets has captured global headlines, but it is far from the only sign that sanctions are causing more and more problems in the Russian economy. The issues are evident in several other places as well. * Lukoil asked the US Treasury Department to
Tax reforms eased for small business PRO Members Public
The government is easing the terms of one aspect of its tax crackdown announced earlier this fall — the legislation that would force small businesses to pay 22% VAT after their revenue passes 10 million rubles (about $125,000). * Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin announced the easing of the reforms at a
Is Russia’s labor market cooling? PRO Members Public
Russia has recorded its first rise in unemployment since February, climbing from a record low of 2.1% to 2.2% in September. * Super-low unemployment, which Vladimir Putin loves to hail as an example of Russia’s economic success, is a sign of the on-going overheating in the labor market.
Central Bank in no rush to cut rates PRO Members Public
As we predicted, the Central Bank is not eager to slash interest rates. On Friday, it reduced its base rate by just 50 basis points to 16.5%. This sent a clear signal that its monetary policy will continue to be very cautious, while leaving it some room for maneuver
Sanctions split PRO Members Public
Europe and the US are still moving in different directions over sanctions. This week Britain greatly expanded its sanctions list to include major Russian oil companies. But the practical effect may be limited unless other countries join in. Meanwhile, after speaking with Putin over the phone, President Donald Trump said
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The Bell was founded in 2017 by journalists Elizaveta Osetinskaya, Irina Malkova and Peter Mironenko as a news outlet independent from the Russian authorities, after its founders have been sacked as top editors at the largest Russian news website RBC because of pressure from the Kremlin.
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